'If it doesn't, it will continue with measures to infuse liquidity, signalling a new cycle,' predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The most striking features of this Budget was its focus on simplification and improving the ease of doing business in India, asserts Kaku Nakhate.
Enthused by higher than expected GDP numbers in the fourth quarter of 2022-23, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran on Wednesday said India's economic growth may exceed the initial estimate of 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal and the country can look for another year of solid economic performance.
"A significant decline in the growth number for this quarter is highly likely, but for the fiscal year as a whole the decline may still be relatively moderate," Fitch Asia-Pacific Sovereigns Group Director Thomas Rookmaaker said.
This time there has been a rather peculiar criticism of the latest GDP numbers.
From the 30-share pack, Adani Port, Bharti Airtel, Asian Paints, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Reliance Industries, Infosys, UltraTech Cement, HDFC Bank, HCL Technologies and ICICI Bank were among the laggards. Tata Motors, Axis Bank, Maruti, Larsen & Toubro, ITC and Tata Steel were among the gainers.
Yes Bank was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding 2.50 per cent, followed by HUL that fell 2.37 per cent, M&M 2.12 per cent, SBI 2.03 per cent, Tata Motors 2.03 per cent and Vedanta 1.97 per cent.
India is poised to be the third largest global economy by 2030 but rising population presents mounting challenges in basic service coverage and growing investment needs to maintain productivity, S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday. It said emerging economies have high ambitions for the next decade and beyond with India aiming to become a $30 trillion economy by 2047, from the current $3.6 trillion. India is currently the fifth largest economy.
'Challenge is basically near-term growth as the outlook has turned a bit adverse.'
SBI economists on Tuesday sharply slashed their FY22 GDP growth estimates to 7.9 per cent - the lowest among all analysts - from the earlier projection of 10.4 per cent growth. The economists at the state-run lender seemed to attribute the impact of the second wave of COVID-19 infections as a key factor for the revision in the growth estimate, and pitched for faster vaccination. "... our analysis shows a disproportionately larger impact on the economy this time and given that rural is not as resilient as urban, the pick-up in pent-up demand is unlikely to make a large difference in FY22 GDP estimates, and hence it could only be a modest pick-up," they said.
'Investors who remain calm, consistent, and disciplined through short-term volatility are usually the ones who benefit most in the long run.'
The new IIP series based on the new base year, is expected to lead to better capturing of ground data
The Trump trade shock is a chance to push long-overdue reforms, rather than tinker with tariffs to appease the US, suggests M Govinda Rao.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday cut India's growth projection for the current fiscal to 7.3 per cent from 7.8 per cent earlier on rising inflation and the longer-than-expected Russia-Ukraine conflict. In its Global Macro Update to Growth Forecasts, S&P said inflation remaining higher for long is a worry, which requires central banks to raise rates more than what is currently priced in, risking a harder landing, including a larger hit to output and employment. S&P had in December last year pegged India's GDP growth in the 2022-23 fiscal, which began on April 1, 2022, at 7.8 per cent.
The new numbers show India's economic growth rate averaged 6.7 per cent during the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance regime as compared to 7.3 per cent under the present government. Previous numbers had put the average growth rate during the 10-year UPA rule at 7.75 per cent.
'If our Budget allows, we may implement both measures -- making income up to Rs 10 lakh tax-free and introducing a 25 per cent slab for income between Rs 15 lakh and Rs 20 lakh.'
From the Sensex firms, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Titan, HDFC Bank, IndusInd Bank, Infosys and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the biggest laggards. On the other hand, Adani Ports, Mahindra & Mahindra, Power Grid, Eternal and Hindustan Unilever were among the gainers.
Trump may temper his approach from time to time, but to think that he will change his basic philosophy is delusional, asserts T T Ram Mohan.
It would be a difficult task for the Indian economy to reach the $5-trillion mark a year before the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projection of 2026-27. Pankaj Chaudhary, minister of state for finance, said in the Rajya Sabha on Tuesday that the government is taking steps to make the country a $5-trillion economy at a date earlier than the IMF's projection. In that context, it would not be difficult to meet the projection in the third quarter of FY27.
The finance minister's assertion that industry should not expect any spectacular announcements in the 2024 interim Budget suggest that the electoral imperatives of more tax concessions or higher expenditure on welfarist programmes could be far less pronounced than they were before the 2019 interim Budget, expects A K Bhattacharya.
Retail inflation dipped marginally to a nearly six-year low of 3.34 per cent in March due to a decline in prices of vegetables and protein-rich items. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was 3.61 per cent in February and 4.85 per cent in March last year.
GDP growth of 7.7 per cent in the first half of this fiscal has "left sceptics gasping and woefully behind the curve", an RBI article said on Wednesday. It also stressed the buildup in the growth momentum is likely to be sustained. The article on the state of the economy published in the Reserve Bank's December Bulletin on Wednesday also said CPI-based retail inflation is expected to ease to 4.6 per cent in the first three quarters of 2024-25 from 5.6 per cent in November.
Indian economy is expected to clock an average growth rate of 6.7 per cent till 2026-27 fiscal driven by domestic consumption, S&P Global Ratings senior Economist (Asia Pacific) Vishrut Rana said on Wednesday. He said the economic growth in the current fiscal is expected to come in around 6 per cent, lower than 7.2 per cent clocked in 2022-23. "We are seeing some headwinds from the trade side which is affecting activity and that is one of the factors that is affecting growth this year," Rana said at a webinar.
Global rating agency Standard and Poor's (S&P) has said it expects India to grow by 6.5 per cent during 2013, amidst the possibility of global economic recovery continuing during the year.
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday retained India's economic growth forecast at 7 per cent for the current fiscal, but cut projections for the next two financial years saying the country is not impervious to global developments. In its December edition of the Global Economic Outlook, Fitch projected India's GDP to grow at 7 per cent in the current fiscal, at a slower rate of 6.2 per cent in 2023-24 and at 6.9 per cent in 2024-25. In September, Fitch projected 7 per cent growth for the current fiscal, followed by 6.7 per cent in 2023-24 and 7.1 per cent growth in 2024-25.
Growing at a robust rate due to economic reforms in key sectors like digitisation and infrastructure, India has emerged as a star performer and is projected to contribute more than 16 per cent of the global growth, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday. "What we have been observing for quite some time now is that India has been growing at a very robust rate. "It's one of the star performers when it comes to real growth when you look at peer countries.
Credit rating agency Crisil observed in its report that some 'high frequency indicators go out of whack' as credit growth and service tax collections are not in tune with the CSO's growth projections.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday slashed India's GDP growth forecast for FY23 to 7 per cent from the earlier estimate of 7.2 per cent mainly on account of higher inflation and a tight monetary policy. India's economy grew 13.5 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022-23, reflecting strong growth in services, ADB said in its second supplement to Asian Development Outlook Report 2022 (ADO 2022). "However, GDP growth is revised down from ADO 2022's forecasts to 7 per cent for FY2022 (ending March 2023) and 7.2 per cent for FY2023 (ending March 2024) as price pressures are expected to adversely impact domestic consumption, and sluggish global demand and elevated oil prices will likely be a drag on net exports," ADB said.
Volkswagen Passenger Cars is targeting a volume sales growth of about 15 per cent in the country in 2024, even as it expects the Indian passenger vehicle (PV) industry to grow by 5-7 per cent in the current year, its India brand director, Ashish Gupta, said on Thursday. This means the company is expecting to grow 2-3 times faster than the Indian PV industry in 2024. But globally, the German automaker is expecting just 3 per cent rise in sales this year, down from 12 per cent last year.
Wall Street brokerage Goldman Sachs has lowered its estimate for India's economic growth to 11.1 per cent in fiscal year to March 31, 2022, as a number of cities and states announced lockdowns of varying intensities to check spread of coronavirus infections. India is suffering the world's worst outbreak of COVID-19 cases, with deaths crossing 2.22 lakh and new cases above 3.5 lakh daily. This has led to demand for imposition of nationwide strict lockdowns to stem the spread of the virus - a move that the Modi government has so far avoided after the economic devastation last year from a similar strategy.
Analysts are warning of growing risks to the market's sustained momentum, and even to the possibility of consolidation at current levels. Domestically, markets are grappling with several challenges, including a slowing economy, as indicated by the latest GDP data for the July-September (Q2) quarter of 2024-25 (FY25), sticky inflation, fluctuations in the rupee, waning consumption, and high interest rates.
In response to the panic triggered by Trump's trade policies, the RBI net sold approximately $43 billion in the second half of FY25 to curb volatility, as the rupee plunged to a low of 87.95 per dollar in February this year.
'This debate is going on all over the world and everybody is saying that only GDP cannot estimate the real (economic) situation of a country.'
Only power generation grew faster in 2014 than in earlier years.
The RBI projection of 6.9 per cent GVA growth for the current fiscal comes on the back of the Economic Survey last week forecasting economic growth of 6.5 per cent.
India's military expenditure in 2024 was nearly nine times that of Pakistan's, according to a study released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). India's spending reached USD 86.1 billion, while Pakistan spent USD 10.2 billion. China's military spending continued to rise, reaching USD 314 billion, accounting for 50% of all spending in Asia and Oceania.
The Reserve Bank on Friday raised the inflation projection for current fiscal year to 4.8 per cent from 4.5 per cent with Governor Shaktikanta Das saying lingering food price pressures are likely to keep headline inflation elevated in the December quarter. Consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation increased sharply in September and October 2024 led by an unanticipated increase in food prices.
IDFC believes that for a sustainable 8% annual growth in GDP, Indian roads need to keep pace with a 9% growth.
Describing the "lower agriculture output" as the "immediate challenge", Nomura said it could be a drag on GDP in the next quarter and on rural consumption. "But we expect urban consumption to rebound due to better job prospects," it said.
For India to transform into a high-income country with a projected gross domestic product (GDP) of $23-35 trillion, will need a sustained annual growth of 8 per cent to 10 per cent. This will be powered by India's demographic dividend, technological innovation, and sectoral transformation, according to the "India@2047: Transforming India Into A Tech-Driven Economy" report by Bain & Company and Nasscom. By 2047, the services sector is expected to contribute 60 per cent of India's GDP, while manufacturing will account for 32 per cent, both playing a pivotal role in economic expansion.
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